The Indianapolis Colts have never beaten the New Orleans Saints.
In fact, the Saints won all 4 of the two teams previous meetings, most famously (and painfully for Colts fans) the last game of the 2009 season, Super Bowl XLIV.
That was almost a decade ago, and since then, the two teams have met 3 times (2 regular season and 1 preseason game). In 2011, the man wearing the fleur-de-lis humiliated the Curtis Painter (and Dan Orlovsky) "led" Colts, 62-7 (fun fact: Drew Brees had more TD-s (5) on that game than incompletions (4)).
Then 4 years later, the Colts tried again, but felt short of the sticks again, but in a significantly closer game (at least in the final score: 21-27). The Colts did have an emerging star QB in Andrew Luck (who had already been battling with injuries in his 3rd season...), but after an awful first half, the game was basically over for the halftime (the Colts did manage to make it a one posession game in the last minute, but it was already too late).
Some things change, others do not (well, eventually they will, but that's life after all).
The Saints? They have had Drew Brees since 2006. (And by the way, they are 5-0 in 2019 wihout him!)
The Colts had arguably the best QB of all time in Peyton Manning, but they still lost in the 2009 Super Bowl. No one questions that the Colts should have won more than 1 Super Bowl with Manning.
They had a dreadful year in 2011, facing the consequences of not building an even just average team around Manning for more than a decade.
Then they struck a home run after Manning was cut: the golden boy, Andrew Luck arrived as the new messiah....
Those of you who're familiar with the work done by GM Ryan Grigson (and head coach Chuck Pagano) might've figured out already where i'm heading with this.... The same approach was taken by the front office as by their predecessors: let's hope our QB (who happened to be the most talented of the past 20 years...same with Manning) will figure it out for us, otherwhise we're f***ed, since the rest of the team and the coaching staff is below average (close to bottom tier, to be honest).
Long story short, the real messiah for the Colts franchise arrived just a bit too late to save Andrew Luck's career. Nevertheless, the massive job done by GM Chris Ballard is one of the few reasons Colts fans could and should be still hopeful about their team's future (and the 2019 season).
So back to the Saints game:
One team is standing at a confident 10-3 record, has a future hall of famer at QB, a great duo of running backs, one of the best wideouts of the league (Michael Thomas), a really impressive offensive line (2nd fewest sacks allowed with 21), a top 10(ish) defense with a great defensive line and a really good star CB (Lattimore).
Brees is having a quiet season, he isn't doing anything extraordinary, but he's keeping the ball safe, which is just enough for them to have a chance against any team in the league.
He only has 4 interceptions (for 17 passing TD-s), Teddy Bridgewater had 2 in his ~6 games, and they only lost 2 fumbles: that's 8 turnovers in 13 games (only the Aaron Rodgers led Green Bay have less than 10, they have 9 after 14 games).
Their defensive stats might be a bit misleading: they're allowing the 4th fewest rushing yards per game to their opponents, but they've faced the fewest rushing attempts in the league. In yards/attempt (4.3), they're in the middle of the pack.
Since they have a high-scoring offense and they can keep drives alive, they can force their opponents to abandon their running games, and in general, their defense spends the third least time on the field in the NFL.
Against the pass, just like (almost) any other defense, they're depending on their pass rush: currently the Saints are tied for the 4th most sacks in the NFL (43). They're also tied (with the Colts) for 14th in takeaways(19).
The Saints have a pretty solid roster, with some elite players at important positions, beside that they're playing discipline and merciless football. Add a really smart and brave head coach in Sean Payton to it, and no wonder they're one of the favorites to win it all this year.
The playoff hopes are still not officially out for the Colts, but any fan with common sense would tell you they'd been out of the PO picture for a few weeks now (or at least since last week's loss to Tennessee).
Nevertheless, there are still plenty of reason for the Colts to fight for in this game. That mentality won't change, they're still eager for W-s. That's because the culture has been restored, and they're clearly going in the right direction.
We have now what we didn't have once in the 20 years while we had two of the best QB talents of all time: a competent roster.
Yes, this team wasn't going to win the Super Bowl without Andrew Luck, but they still had a realistic chance to make the playoffs. What happened then?
Injuries, and some really bad decision making happened. The Colts (Frank Reich and Chris Ballard, but probably Jim Irsay had something to do with it as well) undoubtedly made their biggest mistake in recent years: they kept Adam Vinatieri as the team's kicker, even though he was struggling early in the season.
He's still the goat of kickers and will be inducted into Canton in his first year being eligible, but his mistakes caused the Colts at least two games. If i'm being harsh, i'd say 3 games, which would mean the Colts would be standing at a 9-4 record.
There are no ifs in sports (or in life...). Mistakes were made, but I really believe this is something Ballard and Reich could learn from.
The whole team fighted, standed together and showed the white of their teeth's for 13 games, they didn't care about Vinatieri getting a special treatment. But they should, and nothing like this should ever happen again. They're building a culture, and no matter who you are, what you've done, you mustn't be above the team or above anyone.
Fighting for a PO spot is cool I guess, but i'm more excited and interested about finding out who could the team rely on and count on going forward.
The most important player to figure that out about is easily Jacoby Brissett.
He's been good at times, and he's been bad at times. He's been battling with an MCL sprain in his left knee, which is for sure a huge obstacle to have (your weight is usually/optimally on your front foot while throwing, not even speaking about moving inside the pocket...)But he hasn't shown enough for us to have a final word on him. I still believe that he's limited to a level, and that level does and will hurt your team. He's struggled to go through his progression, and while you would indeed need to take into consideration the fact that he's lost his no1 and most reliable weapon, TY Hilton, his no2 WR in Devin Funchess, his no2 TE in Eric Ebron, but he hadn't played well before those injuries occured.
Sure, having a great chemistry with your receivers helps, but it won't reduce the processing time Brissett takes to check his options. He usually hesitates when his first read is not open, leading to not having the chance to complete some easy passes to other possibly open receivers. Fortunately the O-line has been terrific just as was last year, but then again, even when Brissett goes through his progression, he tends to choose the safer, short options,, and won't take any chances to go downfield, he'd rather just check down to an easy short completion.
It's great that he takes care of the ball, don't get me wrong: but he leaves too many big plays on the field.
His receivers haven't helped him out either, but you can't really expect more from 4th string players than what they've done. That's just really unlucky to have all the main targets injured, I wouldn't blame Chris Ballard for the lack of depth in that position. The Colts do have a long history with above average number of injuries season after season, that's one topic Ballard should take a look into though.
All in all, Brissett won't lose you many games, but he won't win you many either. That still makes him an NFL starter caliber QB, might even a top 20, as Reich called him several times, with whom a decent team could easily make the playoffs. After all, the injuries that have happened in 2019 plus the misery of Adam Vinatieri has sealed the fate of Indy's season, you can't really blame missing the PO on Brissett. There are probably less than 5 QB-s in the NFL who could have made the playoffs with this situation. It's not a coincident, those QB-s are hard to find, and Colts fans know that, since they had the luxury to have two of them for almost 20 years leading the blues. It's just not easy to accept that one of them retired before the age of 30, a few weeks before the start of the regular season. But Colts fans can't live in the past, and the team is in great hands (Ballard, Reich, even Irsay). There are positives to look for, even in this Saints game:
The Colts has allowed the 7th fewest passing yards/game (only 207.7 yds/game) and the 9th fewest rushing yards/game (99.7 yds/game). The Saints offense is more reliable on them consistently getting positive yards than them having a few big plays. They have the 17th most big plays (20 and 40 yard+ runs) in the running game, and just the 23rd (20 and 40 yard + passes) most big plays in the passing game. The Colts have allowed the 18th fewest big plays (20 and 40 yard+ runs) vs the run, and the 11th fewest big plays (20 and 40 yard+ passes) vs the pass.
These stats in my opinion show that it's a favorable matchup for the Colts: they're a typical "bend but don't break" defense, and this Saints offense is not made for (at least hasn't been) big plays.
Ideal scenario for the Colts for the game:
They need to start hot, especially in the running game. If they can keep their drives alive and don't make too many penalties, they'll have a good chance to run through the Saints front7.
If they won't make turnovers, i think they have a good chance at keeping the score close.
Worst case scenario:
If the Saints will score early on and the Colts would struggle finding an answer, it could get out of their hands relatively quickly and it could get pretty ugly. The Colts offense is just not good enough to rank up 30 points, especially not if they're not controlling the clock and the game. If they'd have to rely on their passing game, it could be over at halftime.
Realistic scenario:
The Colts defense will be able to contain the Saints offense at the beginning. If I were Dennis Allen, i'd call as many blitzes as possible. With that, the Saints could stop the Colts running game and put pressure on Brissett, and since the Colts don't really have any receiver that could get some separation in the first few seconds of the play, it could well result in several sacks and qb hits.
If the Saints take an early lead, it won't be an exciting game, but if the Colts could keep it close and keep using their running game, they might have a chance to have their first win against the Saints.
Final score prediction:
New Orelans Saints 27 : 16 Indianapolis Colts